Key Takeaways

• BTC’s STH Unrealized Profit remains neutral, suggesting more upside. But failure to hold $118K could drag BTC below $100K toward historic support.

Bitcoin [BTC] recently hit a new all-time high, followed by a steep correction that brought the asset down to $118,250 at press time.

Analysis suggests this drop may be part of a corrective phase.

The STH Unrealized Profit chart indicated a potential rally toward $136,000, with the worst-case scenario placing Bitcoin back in the accumulation zone around $101,000.

Unrealized Profit shows more room to run

Despite reaching a new high of $123,000, data showed that Bitcoin’s local top may not be in yet.

One major factor pointing to further upside is the BTC’s STH Relative Unrealized Profit metric. This indicator divides market behavior into three zones: neutral (blue), heated (yellow), and overheated (red).

Source: Glassnode

Historically, local tops formed when this metric entered the heated range, such as in January and April 2024.

However, according to Glassnode, despite its recent rally, Bitcoin has remained below the heated zone, indicating further room for growth.

Additionally, the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) liquidity chart confirms this bullish bias, as the price remains above the VWAP line.

Timing the breakout – How many days left?

Bitcoin is on day 12 of its current expansion cycle, according to Bitcoin Vector’s Optimal Signal indicator.

Source: Bitcoin Vector

Previous rallies lasted thirty days each, and this model shows expansion phases typically last 15–30 days. That leaves up to 18 days for upside continuation—if BTC mirrors previous patterns.

With these conditions in place, AMBCrypto analyzed where Bitcoin might head next, if bullish pressure continues, or if the bears regain control.

THIS points to $136K BTC target

According to Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model, BTC could rally toward $136,000.  

This $136,000 level aligns with the +2 standard deviation band—also known as the heated region—which has historically preceded market corrections.

Source: Glassnode

However, if Bitcoin fails to gain upward momentum and continues its descent, two critical support zones come into play.

The first is between $101,000 and $109,000, a region that previously acted as an accumulation zone. The second sits lower, between $93,000 and $97,000.

Source: Glassnode

If BTC falls into the first cluster and fails to bounce meaningfully, a drop toward the second support band becomes more likely, with Bitcoin potentially losing the $100,000 level.